AFC Championship Preview: Chiefs vs. Bills Analysis

By: Ben Tredinnick


Photo: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images


For the seventh consecutive year, the Kansas City Chiefs have made the AFC Championship Game. This has become almost a formality during the Mahomes era, with this stage being seen by some fans are the minimum requirement for a successful season. 

A victory in this game would give the Chiefs their third consecutive appearance in the Super Bowl, and continue their hunt for the illustrious three-peat. 

However, it will not be an easy feat. 

This season, the Kansas City Chiefs have not been the usually dominant team that we have grown accustomed to seeing. While they were able to easily win the AFC West and become the number one seed in the AFC with a 15-2 record, there were numerous games this season where if one play went the other way, it would have resulted in a loss for the team. 

Examples of this include their opening-day win over the Baltimore Ravens, where if Ravens’ wide receiver Isaiah Likely’s toes were a few inches smaller, they would have won the game, a last-second field goal win a week later against the Cincinnati Bengals, and a blocked Denver Broncos field goal as the time ran out. 

Additionally, Patrick Mahones has struggled this year, especially when compared to what he has been able to do in previous years. This was his first regular season as the starter when he did not throw for more than 4000 yards, though his ankle injury and not playing at all in the week 18 dead rubber may be the cause for this. 

This being said, the moment Kansas City enters the playoffs, they revert back to their old dominant form, as seen by their win over the Houston Texans last week.

But, while the Chiefs are hoping to see a return to form, their opponents, the Buffalo Bills want to continue their strong performances this year. 

For many seasons, the Buffalo Bills have been the “third wheel” to the Chiefs-Bengals dominance. They are always in contention, but when faced with one of these teams, they would never be able to defeat them. 

This year, things are different. Buffalo cruised through the AFC East, which was incredibly weak this season, and easily defeated the Denver Broncos in the wildcard round. Their win against the Baltimore Ravens was down to a bit of luck (a dropped catch from Mark Andrews), but that cannot take away how strong this team has been this year. 

Bills quarterback Josh Allen has been able to defeat his demons surrounding ball security to help lead this team to this stage for only the second time since their infamous four consecutive wins in the 1990s. 

The game itself is likely to be a close, high-scoring affair. The two teams met earlier in the season, with the Bills outplaying a struggling  Chiefs side to record a 30-21 win. This will be something that Allen and company (and the majority of NFL fans) would want to see again. 

However, the elephant in the room needs to be addressed. Throughout this season, the Chiefs have been on the receiving end of some very generous officiating calls, with many fans saying that the NFL is manipulating the games to ensure a Chiefs win, something that the NFL has denied.  The worst-case scenario for all involved in the AFC Championship game would be that the game-defying moment comes from a referee’s flag, rather than one of the players on the field. 

Let’s all hope for a close game, and may the best team win.

Score Prediction: Buffalo 28, Kansas City 24

Ben Tredinnick is a contributor to The MMM Journal. He can be reached at bmtredinnick@thefourthquartile.com.

X: @BMTredinick, Instagram: b.m.tredinnick

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